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Wine Auction Stimulus and Recovery May News & Views

May Wine Auction News & Views

The Wine world is a wild turbulent and exciting place. And we love it!

No one can complain not about a lack of drama and opportunity as the great wine wheels spin their merry way to the end of the financial year.

Floods, fire and famine have had their way and a price in lives and sweat. (We will never forget the cost of lives in 2009)

The biggest drama is the “Scare Offensive”. Come 2011 we will all look back at 2009 and wonder what all the fuss was about.

There is no denying the problems delivered to the world by our American cousins and their toxic sub primes.

In two years there will a sigh of relief and we will find a flue that beats birds and pigs to worry about instead.

This global financial crisis is becoming a big bore.

PM Rudd and Treasurer Swan are determined to scare the spending out of everyone with all the big economic boggie stories.

The “stimulus” giveaways must be the answer!

Looks like a scared population is easier to influence and control, spose you have to trust the judgment of the leaders when there is trouble. It feels good to know they say it will all be OK (particularly if free money comes your way! )

I want to wager that a lot of “stimulus” $900 giveaway cash will be invested in 2004 Penfolds Grange.

The wine auction market is alive and well, in fact thriving.

The auction market is flush with buyers ready to strike. Thanks to the “great scare” being pushed by our glorious leaders we have seen wine stocks for auction sale reduced to a trickle.

The message getting through to potential wine sellers too scared to sell is loud and WRONG.

This isn’t just a good time to be selling; its one of the best.

Scrub out all the silly “bloated” auction estimates that were the fashion in early 2008 and focus on real sale prices. In so many cases the current market is selling solid, sensible, collectables at roughly the same prices as they were selling at the beginning of 2008.

What is a solid sensible collectable?

Well let’s looks at what DOES NOT get a tick.

2003 and 2005 Bordeaux and Burgundy was hyped through the roof and as expected, it has had a serious adjustment.

I do not dare rock the boats of our great wine legends; they are doing so well to promote the real business and collectable values. They are doing a stunning job.

Think of the tiny productions of Chris Ringlands Three Rivers, or Michael / Annabelle Waugh’s Greenock Creek Roennfeldt Road. Tiny qualities met with such overwhelming demand that massive price fluctuations are inevitable.

A few bottles of Roennfeldt Road may sell up or down a by hundred dollars at auction or retail or across a restaurant table. Does that represent a trend or a firm tradable price point?

No, it is sweet, serendipitous nonsense that gives journos and wine merchants fodder for late night proclamations. The information is after all, in most cases true!

March, April and May we are seeing the solid sensible collectables moving along very nicely. The likes of (Moss Wood, Wendouree, Torbreck, Rockford, Noon, Penfolds Bins, Giaconda, Henschke, Jim Barry, Mount Mary, E&E etc) are heads up and moving forward on price in most cases.

Selling wine on price is the domain of the discount retailer or Web dumper specialist.

Wine Auctions cant, and don’t really want to compete in this market. If you are reading this you are driven by quality and brand first. Getting a good deal comes in next.

Spare a thought for the Penfolds Grange machine that just keeps on kicking goals.

Not a bad achievement to have the 2004 Grange released at a record price into a recession market.

With an official retail of over $A600 a bottle, good old Aussie Grange is floating past some huge names on the price and pomp front.

The 2008 Mouton Rothchild has just been released at a pre-delivery price of $A200 with that number expected to move up to $350 by year end.

We do have lots of wine scribes and commentators in love, lust and raptures with this wine. The need to have “sex with the glass” and “Australia’s best ever wine” are two throw aways that are hard to forget.

Yes it is a good wine. The 2004 Penfolds Grange may even be the best Grange ever. The Grange machine with Miester Gago at the controls has set the standard and maybe even plotted the path for all producers looking for global conquest.

What’s in the glass is most of the story, having the story told and putting the wine in the right hands is the little side story that matters.

Global conquest can not be taken seriously without thought for the Chinese.

The Dragon has gone back home in these times of economic woe.

Not to rest, but to get the Dagon cave up graded and sort out the local neighborhood.

The Chinese economy needs ongoing growth. Investing all those mega-billions in hard earned trade dollars, stockpiled over the past 20 years, is the way forward.

Stimulating domestic consumption in a country of 1.3 billions is a big job and it makes good sense to solve problems with industrial pollution and health.

The hunger for “western” experience and indulgence is as strong as ever in China. Wine drinking is on the move and wine collection is a big business.

Sterling has advanced its plans to open a Beijing business in 2009.

The concept of providing the local wine owners with a platform to trade their existing holdings is our first interest.

The secondary, or auction market for wine in China virtually does not exist. This style of trade is not well know, understood or trusted

There are many distractions and painful business problems taking priority in China today.

Wine Auctions will be there soon enough. If you want to talk to us about selling stock located in China (in English or Mandarin) let me know

It is impossible for me to pass the day without being asked to advise on buying 2006 Penfolds Bin wines. Bins 28, 407and 389 seem to be attracting most attention and rave reviews. There is plenty of discounting going on so price is, as always and issue.

Buy them, enjoy them and even save a few for the future. Think about selling some of your delightful old faithfuls to cover the cost!

Before you hit too hard on the new releases have a look a back vintages in the auction catalogues. Bottle aged strong vintages are, in many cases, cheaper.

It was a little joke at the time but now I am serious.

Over the next 18 months, use wine investment as “investment diversional therapy”.

Put aside $5K to $10K and play with the wine auctions and new releases. Stay away from the stock market or any tricky get rich quick schemes.

Worst case you will meet new friends and make the family happy turning $10,000 into some overpriced drinking wines

Best case is that your real money will be safe in the bank ready for the return of a stable, reliable investment market

Heck you could even buy and sell your way to a free drinking cellar!

Enjoy!!

 
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May 2009


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