Is the 2010 Penfolds the most exciting and controversial Australian wine ever launched?
The fuss around the 1990 Grange, the 1998 Grange and funny enough, the 1995 White Grange / Yatarrna, grabbed plenty of headlines and opened plenty of wallets –
Asking for a recommended retail of $800, 2010 Grange certainly breaks new ground – The BIG question - Is it that good? As a wine and as a luxury brand
Back in 1995 The BIG controversy was the impossible price of 1990 Grange which was released at a MAD $100 a bottle – The very first Grange to crack the ton! By comparison, the legendary 1986 was selling for just $50 only 4 years before
(I remember sooo clearly all the old hands refusing their annual Grange allocation and swearing never to buy Grange again – promising the wine would fail without their support – That is - Until Wine Spectator gave the 1990 Grange International Wine of the Year and the retail release price doubled at Auction in under 2 years – Lots of humble pie was served on this one!)
Why are we having this conversation? Simple - Penfolds Grange is the singular solitary GIANT of Australian wine – Price / Volume / impact - Nothing is close – Henschke Hill of Grace is the No1 performer as a single vineyard / non-commercial wine – Grange of course is a freak in the wine world – the only? Super premium / First Growth / Grand Cru that is a “bitser” blended from many SA districts – even grapes from WA have been known to be in the blends.
A Good Buy? Why ask the question? Spend $800 on a pair of shoes, a bottle of perfume, a watch etc and look at selling them again, as second hand – You would be lucky to get 50% of purchase price – even if the goods were unused and in the original unopened packs.
Simple – The history of Grange pricing, I believe available data backs this up, shows a trend towards capital stability over a five year period with a predictable dip in value over the two years after release
The rubber in these numbers goes down to the massive variation in purchase prices – Already, only days after release, the first 2010 Grange discounting wave has hit with advertised prices around $650.The big Liquor retail chains always do deals on box buys and if you pay with gift vouchers / special deals you can wipe off another good 10%. It is feasible to buy a quantity (6-12) at around $600 a bottle – Some mugs will pay the full wack (after the first wave of discounts washes through) $600 and $800 buy prices – that will throw the stats!
For those who want a bottle of the current release 2010 Grange, and are patient enough to hold on for 10 -20 years until it comes of drinking age – WHY NOT – buy it and show it off!
IF you need an excuse – call it an investment – convince Mum that you are diversifying your portfolio
Likely just as important; What will happen to the $800 NOT spent on a bottle of 2010 – Try and account for the $800 you didn’t spend in ten years’ time! (likely just water under the bridge)
The day of writing (1/11 /2014) The Robert Parker system released it’s score for 2010 Grange as a “near perfect” 99RP – Splitting hairs? Does it matter – Yes it does - There are a handful recent vintage 100RP super premium Oz wines (listed below) It is what the jaded collector expects of a Super Super premium
Mr Parkers Wine Advocate and eRobertparker carry MASSIVE international influence and Grange is an international wine – No one knows just how much Grange is produced – We often hear reports of whole shipping containers full being spotted on the docks heading OS. The Parker reviewer, Ms Lisa Perrotti-Brown MW is highly qualified, experienced and I believe widely respected ( Ms Lisa – does know how to give Grange RP100, she gave the 2008 a perfect score – more on that later)
Good Bye
The 2010 Grange story is fitting of Breaking Bad /Game of Thrones – greed / lust / haves and have nots / power / and a few good fights
This is not just buying a bottle of wine – this is a social statement, a marker of taste /ability / having arrived / being a long term player – As such, the following sensible reasonable points questioning if 2010 Grange is over rated / overpriced will IMEADIATELY be seen as excuses for the unworthy / undeserving
At the risk of confusing logic and luxury brand marketing – here are a few ideas
Is Grange 2010 to best wine you can buy for $600 -800? - probably not
Can you buy better/ as good wines cheaper – most likely
Unlikely you would ask the Mercedes driver or the Rolex watch wearer the same questions – after all a Holden or a Seiko do the same job
What are you going to do with it? Salt it away for the Grand kids? – Drink it on retirement? – Sell it at auction? Whatever the plan, keep in mind the crime of drinking Grange in less than 10 years after release – a mega Grange like the 2010 might need 20 years to break through the puppy fat – It is amazing – No; Miraculous - The 1976 Grange (a Methuselah of wines) is still drinking like a baby! – The 2010 Grange MAY prove to be a worthy companion
OK – So you want a Great Grange experience – My advice; Drink a well cellared back vintage – There is no such thing as a bad Grange – Just about every vintage of the past 40 years is dinking very well
Want a Great Grange experience – Here is my hit parade
Drinking with those who know /care – 1971 / 1976 – Auction prices are trending up – strong demand against failing supply – don’t wait too long to buy and don’t waste the experience by sharing with mugs and pretenders
Drinking a birth year – Is there a greater Grange experience than drinking the wine of your birth year? Always take plenty of time – never rush – Consider buying a bottle that has been to the re-corking clinic
Drinking a bargain – 1992 – 1993 – 1995 – 1997 are all considered BAD vintages and selling $100 plus cheaper –(see above – The idea of bad vintage numbers is OFTEN perception / fashion / hair splitting – There is no such thing as a bad Grange) BUY any bottle with label or capsule damage – Plenty wine fridges are too humid and cause significant damage to labels – serious reduction in auction price – FUNNY label damage doesn’t damage the taste!!
Smartest Drink – THE sweet spot – 2001 – Huge Parker points -98+ and 2001 is seen to be a “bad number” this vintage sells cheaply – Good bottle age – not old enough to be a cranky slow starter – BARGAIN!
Safe drinking – 2008, 2006, 2004 – (spot the number pattern ? The only ever recognised odd number vintage is 1971! Maybe the 1991 ) Younger Granges are exciting and predictable. These recent vintages might be too young for the table – If sacrificed as babies they will thrill and please those who are inclined to enjoy the label and price point more than the contents
INVESTMENT? - the RP100 2008 Grange - The only modern Grange vintage to have scored a perfect RP100 (1976 also scored a perfect RP100 – 2010 scored RP99 and the reviewer noted the 2008 as a better wine ) With two years in the cellar, the 2008 is that little bit closer to optimum drinking date
Buy at auction -take advange of the fresh / recent vintage auction prices – As noted above VERY rare for a current / recent release Grange to come to auction for more than the best deep discounted retail price
What to do? – buy a bottle just for the heck of it – Think of the Grandkids?
Sinking serious money into quantities of this one would need a clever plan – Target key customers with pre-sell “favour” prices Use as a store promo item – The risk of getting stuck with such valuable stock is always an issue
In short - For that sort of money; Are you buying a near perfect wine or a corporate high profit ambition to compete with global super premium luxury brands?
Opportunity
The liquor retail trade has changed in many ways and changes will continue with new communication and eMarketing technologies shortening the gap between buyer and seller
One thing will NEVER change – The purchase experience is driven by expertise and good advice – The area of great opportunity is providing expertise in the premium and super premium segments –
Some things NEVER change - the market segment that wants cheap squirt delivered with maximum convenience has ALWAYS found a way to cut out the middlemen – Not so long ago there were Perth retailers and Swan Valley producers who filled / refilled flagons with CHEAP bulk wine and port – the original Cleanskins! Today the same “cheap squirt” market is the big volume wine box dumpers working the internet with unknown brands and more hype than a three ring circus
The focus on health and sobriety has moved MANY buyers into upmarket product niches – We are not just talking Penfolds Grange here – Look at the Beer market – 20 years ago a boutique / premium beer was Crown Lager – designed to drink straight from the bottle in “classy” restros
Today – there is almost no limit to how trendy and expensive boutique beer can be. Every other Liquor store has bottles of beer hand made by Belgium monks for $50 a bottle – And the market is not toffy white collar types – Most tradies drink smart imported beers by preference – and pay big bucks – Because they are into it!
Find a new trendy imported beer with a new “story” and it will sell – Plenty of guys are keen to buy and try it all
The wine “game” is more complex, more exciting and more lucrative than ever before – Your well-heeled punters are longing to hear your advice – news of a recent discovery – They fully understanding the dynamics of rare and trendy ………. They are prepared to pay a premium for the experience
Points and ratings are subjective; maybe even misguided – but NEVER trivial - Big Parker / Halliday points carry HUGE influence – Ride along – Play the game to suit yourself
Let’s Play the $ v RP points game
Penfolds Grange has blue-sky between it and the competition in terms of Size influence and Dollars
Grange does have competition – Lets not consider single barrel / tiny production Uber premiums like Ringland (Chris Ringland/Three Rivers) – Torbreck Laird, Greenock Creek Roenfeldt Road or Molly Dooker Velvet Glove – either too small or too few vintages produced to be factored in
To me Grange Contemporaries are a clear bunch or four – Henschke Hill of Grace / Torbreck Run Rig / Clarendon Hills Astralis / Jim Barry Armagh They all have 20+ vintages on the books and finding a bottle to buy is not too hard – There are two “home Grown Penfolds contenders only just outside the circle. Penfolds RWT is the anti-Grange that has become the “Rhone” style premium benchmark. Penfolds Bin 707 CABERNET SAUVIGNON is the colliding Parellel universe - the ALTERNATIVE, MAYBE the Grange replacement
It’s dangerous to do selective extracts of tasting notes – Below are the full extracts of Robert Parker (click on the green button) . Last Australian auction price records provided by WineDux
| Penfolds Grange 2010 | No auction sales – Current retail | $650 | Parker 99
Halliday 99
|
| Clarendon Hills Astralis 2010 | Last auction sale | $300 | Parker 100 |
| Torbreck Run Rig 2010 | Last auction sale | $201 | Parker 100 |
| Penfolds Bin 707 2010 | Last auction sale | $272 | Parker 95+ |
| Penfolds RWT 2010 | Last auction sale | $111 | Parker 93+ |
| JimBarry Armagh 2010 | Not released – Cellar Door 2009 | $240 | Parker 99+ |
| Henschke Hill of Grace 2010 | 2010 Not released / Not reviewed 2009 Current retail $525 2008 Last auction sale $500 |
| 7 | 792 | PENFOLDS Grange Hermitage Shiraz 1971 NOTES | South Australia | 1 BOTTLE | $1050 |
Every now and then well intentioned advice does work out – A Sterling client brought in four well cellared but ullaged bottles of 1970 and 
1971 Grange Hermitage from the family cellar. By chance, the Penfolds Re-corking Clinic was in town that very week! The following week the client returned with four bottles of signed, sealed and certified clinic Grange – A significant bonus in terms of improved value and perfect certainty for the auction buyer
I have seen over 20 years in the wine auction business, and only two wines have ALWAYS been in the forefront - Penfolds Grange Hermitage 1971 and 1976
This story is not about fashion or hype, it’s about world class wines that just happen to be still improving with age – Peter Gago, Penfolds Chief winemaker and current custodian of Grange, leads the Penfolds team at most of the re-corking clinics. His belief - Grange 1971 and 1976 are still improving with age – He would know.
The Grange Market
