This near perfect bottle, bought new and held by a private collector, tells an amazing story of a time when Margaret River was in its infancy with a VERY uncertain future. Denis Horgan, a well know entrepreneur took a huge leap of faith and invested in a Margaret river Winery a short time after commercial production was proven by Dr Tom Cullity at Vasse Felix.

The 1978 was in fact a trial vintage – the first commercial vintage at Leeuwin Estate was in 1979

Accustomed to going straight to the top, Mr Horgan joined forces with international wine legend Napa Valley’s Robert Mondavi to ensure the Margaret River project had the best chance of success. The partnership was short lived but the ambitions paid dividends – Leeuwin Estate, driven by the Horgan family, went on to rival the world’s greatest Chardonnay producers with the amazing Art series which now celebrates more than 32 vintages An idea of just how uncertain the future of wine in Margaret River was in 1978 – Bill Pannell Moss Wood founder wrote off the entire 1978 Cabernet vintage because an inferior ferment yeast was supplied.

Choice is the great luxury. When we are presented with a smorgasbord of back vintage delights - what goes first? Sterling has watched with interest how taste and budget marry with supply and demand. Hard to believe, but there are plenty of big hitters out there who will happily pay over $5000 for the right collectable bottle of Domaine Romanee Conti.

The market slims down when the rare and fabulous is also old and unreliable. That makes sense. Paying $5000 for a 60+ year old bottle of Petrus is always going to be a risk. Even with the best providence, the particular bottle might be disappointing. Just like a racehorse in training - an expensive hobby. Most Melbourne Cup winner hopefuls never win a race and retire to the Police force. I suppose playing with horses is more fun than gambling on a rare old bottle drinking as expected.

We can be forgiven for sticking with the predictable. Safe is good and adventurous is another way of saying dangerous. The current accepted wisdom is that wines more than 10 years old are unsuitable for restaurant wine lists and going older than 1996 or 1994 is taking an unacceptable risk.

Sure a bottle of 1991 Henschke Hill of Grace is going to be a fussy customer compared to a bottle of 2006. It might have some problems with the old cork and likely the old wine will present a little closed and awkward until it gets some air and time in the glass. Wouldn’t it be fabulous to try the two glasses together?

So, what’s the problems here? Is it preference? The need for education? Unrealistic expectations? We do live in a world where instant gratification is the norm and patience has indeed become a virtue.

Frequently, people who should know better, report back to me that a particular bottle was faulted and undrinkable. Often the wine is over 20 years old and the decision to tip down the drain was made in a few seconds. How much senseless waste? Sure, bad is bad - but what was really bad?

Old wines are a bit like old people. They’re not contenders for Olympic glory but they do have so much to offer: character and experience; the beauty of sophistication and elegance; wisdom.

There are a number of current trends presenting a danger factor to old wine. For example, restaurants not equipped to open wine bottles with corks, so just selling screw caps. Or, the norm with wine appreciation being the expectation of an instant burst of primary fruit and a drink that is perfectly pure and predictable.

Don’t get a group of wine buffs started on the scared subject of Brettanomyces. The true believers see any wine with the slightest trace of brett as a bad wine; an embarrassment not worthy of consumption. Of course there are others who believe, with equal passion, that brett in small doses can be an essential “character” component of fine wine.

The point worth arguing and pursuing is this: like the patience needed to raise and train a colt up to its first race, the wine experience isn’t just about the predictable and backing the odds-on favourite.

My suggestion is to make a special occasion, once a week, where you open an interesting old wine. Maybe it’s an excuse to get back to the family chicken roast on Sunday! Give the poor old thing a chance to state its case. Do jump to conclusions: a bottle from the 1980s may have little wood influence and perhaps alcohol much lower than your current experience. It is also likely to be drier than some of the sweet fruit bombs in current fashion. Be surprised to re-discover the King of grapes: cabernet sauvignon, expressing the regal variety’s true flavour, not masked out by big wood and sweet fruit as is current custom. Most importantly, give it a chance. Having been cramped up in a bottle for 30 years, you would take some time to relax and unwind to friendly interaction. Give your fine old friend in the bottle the same consideration. Finally, enjoy it with food and with family and friends.

The online wine auction scene is powering along with more auctions than ever attracting serious and growing support from “punters” looking for bargains and rare, in-demand back vintages. The chicken and the egg story gets a re-run in the wine auction world, what comes first - the Points or the Punter? Does demand for star wines rely on big rating points from the noble wine scribes?

In September, Sterling activated a complete match of all catalogued wines and their Wine Advocate/Robert Parker scores - and not just the big hitters. To date, the focus has always been on the superstars that scored the extraordinary 96, up to the perfect 100. This warts and all process included scores from Perfect 100’s to low scores in the 70’s - and was both cleansing and a bit daunting.

For a taste of controversy, go no further than the darling of the current auction scene - 1998 Penfolds Bin 707. Demand for this wine is staggering and prices are regularly trending above current vintage release prices. Recent sales over $250 and even up to $300 a bottle have been recorded.

This article is not about judging the judges. If the big name commentators have gone into print with a score (flattering or not) that is their business, their judgment, their job - nothing to do with those in the distribution/consuming worlds. In most cases, commentators and judges do roughly agree. It’s rare for two respected commentators to be poles apart when reviewing the same wine. Even if they were, we’re dealing with handmade “natural food” products, and there will always be bottle variation - and that’s before you start factoring in faulted bottles. A final word on the “referee”. The need for scores and the maddening “use by date” drinking window is driven by consumer need. The punter demands a score and a time frame for cellaring. The poor old “ref” is just giving the punter what they want. However, let’s leave the “ref” alone and concentrate on the effect of points, high or low, on the demand enjoyed by a back vintage over time.

Penfolds Bin 707 1998 does not score so well. True, there are a few big marks - but there are plenty more lower scores - surprisingly low in some cases. This is the wine that every wine auctioneer would love to have by the pallet. It sells all day and night for over $200 a bottle to punters who are thrilled to get it. Demand is way ahead of supply. Simple conclusion: the might of the punter’s wallet outweighs the scribes pen and judgment. The mark of the scribe’s indelible pen is long lived and “everywhere” - thanks to the Google-sphere. Time will dull the punter’s memory and preserve the scribe’s notes.

The poor old ref/scribe/commentator has one shot at getting the score right. Often with samples that are pre-released, awkward youngsters still suffering from bottle shock. Very, very few of the scores, cast in stone at the time of a wines release, are revised and reconsidered with tasting of the wines as mature back vintages.

Let’s not focus on just the 1998 Bin 707. The catch up factor; scores V demand or maybe just changing fashion, also hit the 1982 Chateau Petrus - very hard. From prices touching $10,000 a bottle to an average of nearly $7,000. Jump online and see how many bottles can be bought at retail in Europe, Asia and the US for $4,000 and below. This super, superstar wine from yesteryear has points that average below the break-in 96 level.

High school economics taught us that perfect knowledge of markets was needed for supply and demand to be correctly regulated. Let’s look at just how perfect the flow of information in the Google-sphere can be.

A huge challenge for the wine auction promoter or the buyer is the accuracy of the catalogue estimate and the setting of the auction reserve. The temptation to exaggerate values, or at least focus on exceptional high results, is hard to avoid - particularly when the seller is motivated to achieve the highest result. The process of setting values and putting the buyer into the role of arbiter/facilitator is as old as Adam. Of course the buyer is motivated by the opposite pole to the seller - that is buying as cheaply as possible.

Sterling has commissioned a system of comprehensive auction sales records which will take the guesswork and buyer/seller bias out of the wine auction system. This massive project will ultimately resolve many of the issues eroding buyer confidence. If the auction catalogue estimate and reserve setting was independent of the bi-polar influences of buyer and seller - the system will work very smoothly. The process of reaching this “utopian” business heaven is well underway and will need plenty of independence for absolute transparency. Maybe, one day, the flow of accurate sales records and updated reviews/scores will be so free and transparent that the influence of fashion and mega marketing will be marginalized.

Winter wine auctions have seen an acceleration of a well-established market covering all tastes and budgets. Various large and small players have carpeted the place with wall-to-wall auctions - at least one a week happening somewhere in Australia, so the choice and range of options is huge.

However, let’s not get too comfortable with the choice and values coming from auction, as the winds of change are blowing. From a high a few years ago of almost $US1.10 the Australian Dollar has slipped by over 20 per cent and the trend looks like a long term position below $US0.90

This tedious fact isn’t just affecting your spending money in Bali. The door is now again wide open for Australian wine producers to export to markets that just could afford our premiums over the past few years. The premiums, both locals and imports, will dry up at retail and auction. This won’t happen overnight but the process will take months rather than years.

Look at your wish list and the prices that have been achieved at wine auction over winter 2013. Be selective, and do the research, look at spending next year’s budget this year.

In my opinion, prices for selected icon premiums will push up on the back of increased export pressure and reduced supply into the domestic market. The amazing range of imports, again particularly the top end icons, are still in warehouses for distribution. The stock will likely not be replaced with the new vintages. Again, look carefully at what you want and try to move fast. Draw up a wish list. Be proactive.

If you are a riesling drinker you are indeed spoiled with choice and value. Predicting a radical change in international demand for Australian Riesling is a big call, but I can see it coming and maybe soon. Quality is so high and supply is very limited. A Chinese movie star or maybe a leading lady from Bollywood promoting the fact she only drinks Australian Riesling could start a game changing run of exports.

Sterling recently catalogued some smart old German premium Rieslings form the mid-1970s. Big surprise, the retail price stickers were all between $20 and $30 a bottle - a fortune in the ‘70s. Penfolds Grange Hermitage was only $15 for most of that decade.

2010 is proving to be a solid “investment” vintage. Along with 2008 and 2006 quality, in demand well cellared wines have very strong prospects on the secondary market. On the investing for drinking front, look closely at 2011. The horror stories coming from the likes of Torbreck, who were forced to de-classify all the premium wines because of severe weather damage, have put a permanent black cloud over the 2011 story.

Wait for the 2011 premiums and super premiums to come to auction and buy them cheaply to drink. The news from the trenches is very encouraging. Canny producers who managed the vineyards carefully – or were just “lucky” with the rain and humidity, have produced some fabulous wines.

Feedback on the Sterling Web App has been very positive. There is now no need to miss a bid or a bargain. Bid on your mobile phone or tablet anywhere any time.

The wine auction market is not immune to the damage caused by political indecision and the collapse of consumer confidence. The dramatic paradox of the Australian economy performing so well and the Australian populace behaving no negatively is hard to believe. There are always winners and losers and the crisis in confidence has seen many wine auction prices travelling flat to a touch downhill.

The perfect storm of low international demand following the GFC and the mad high levels of the Australian dollar exchange rates has just about killed recent wine exports and flooded the domestic market with choice deals that are hard for most wine punters to resist. The knock-on with the auction market is predictable - buyers are fussier than ever and potential vendors are nervous and unwilling to commit to selling into the current climate. The good news is there are more than the usual number of bargains in the wine auction catalogues. Particularly in the top end price points.

Sterling’s rolling auction format, a reaction to the demand for “on-line” to be “on-line all the time”, has worked well. Keeping up to date with the demands of the new e-markets has been a challenge but some big steps have resulted, all delivering faster and easier access and purchases. The breakthrough of putting Sterling wine auctions on every smartphone has been a great success. Never miss a bid or an auction close; it’s a simple matter. Sterling has even produced an “app” button for your phone.

An unlikely innovation, Sterling for Charity, was inspired by the need to raise funds for cancer treatment/research through a bike ride in February this year. Sterling for Charity is very simple and very effective. Sell your wine donated for charity fundraising and Sterling will help with heavily discounted cost recovery fees and a proceeds cheque made out in the name of the charity. Converting surplus wine into charity donations has been very popular.

The Penfolds Grange market is the wine auction barometer. Current readings are encouraging and predictable. The “drinking” Granges, best vintages back to say 1986, are preforming very well. In fact, there’s barely a blip on their slow rise in value. The collectable market is a bigger worry, although sub-setting the more sensible birth year market sees some very encouraging stories. Current values for 1973, 1963 even 1983 are travelling near or above all-time records. Just about the safest wine investment tip around is the buy up “perfect condition” 1984, 1974 and 1964 bottles for the birthday round next year. The weird old collectable Granges, particularly from the 1950s are looking very shaky. Not surprising, the reality check has kicked in with the obvious question “Why is an undrinkable bottle of 1951 worth over $A50K?” being answered very firmly by the big money finding happier hunting grounds. Likely the market for top pointed French wines from Bordeaux or Burgundy is benefiting from this collector re-focus.

For me, a collector’s show purchase that makes sense was the 2010 Pontet Canet recently sold by Sterling for under $A400. This 100pt upstart is fresh in town and has decades in its drinking window - flash and smart.

The Grange magnum market has been subject to big fluctuations for some time. Now the trend seems to be fixed and the direction is not up. The release prices, that were often up to four times the single bottle price, combined with the punters sensible choice to go with the more practical standard bottle size has seen Grange magnum prices slide into the keen value zone - with many vintages selling into a market with thin demand at prices that can fall below the value of two regular bottles.

Best buying right now? My happy hunting ground would see Jacobs Creek’s Johann Shiraz Cabernet and Centenary Hill Shiraz, Yalumba’s The Signature Cabernet Shiraz and The Menzies and Bowen Estate Cabernet in the sights.

Sterling has responded to the demands of the e-Marketing world with a new website and features perfectly in step with time-poor web wine buyers. The biggest breakthrough is putting wine auctions onto the smartphone - so you can check and make bids on the Sterling web app. Never miss a bid/bargain again because you were away from your desktop computer!

The back-to-back rolling format runs an auction every two weeks and there is always a wonderful range of back vintage gems on offer. If waiting for the end of an auction is too long, the “Buy It Now” feature allows for stock to be purchased, at a premium price and shipped the next day (or “secured” and added to the auction purchases at the end of the cycle).

The special wine you must have will roll around in a Sterling catalogue sooner or later; but knowing when? Another exciting new feature is the “Notify Me” service. List your “Must Have” wines and they will be listed in your personal account area when they’re catalogued. To push the market to “find” your special “must haves”, a bulletin board with “Our Members Most Wanted” flags the wine that real buyers are waiting to own. Also, for those who can’t wait for the next auction to start a new “crystal ball” - “Upcoming Auction Stock” lists all wines that will be catalogued in the next event.

Auction values are a tricky business and Sterling is working hard to give every potential buyer access to the latest auction estimates and sales results for their wines. Go to “Self Valuation” and list your wines to see where the market is up to. This list remains under your account log-in and updated whenever new sales data is available.

When selling with Sterling, your wine is listed in your account area with full information including what has sold and running, real time totals of your proceeds. Setting reserves is a challenge and Sterling gives you the flexibility to change them while the auction is in progress. By selecting “Accept + $1” you can lower reserves to just $1 above current bids.

A regular bidder update lists all items that are just $1 under reserve. This process brings buyers and sellers together in the most hands on intelligent way.

Everyone loves a winner and the most popular items in each auction are now listed. Look for “Top Ten Most Popular Lots” to see what is hottest in a catalogue. In March, 2003 Penfolds RWT received an amazing 23 bids and in the same sale Johnnie Walker Gold Label attracted 21 bids!

The list of “birth year” wines is a quick shopping stop for that fussy 30th or 40th birthday present, while “Lynton’s Picks” - my personal ‘take home dream list’ - has been on the Sterling website for years and always enjoyed a following - whether it’s for the quirky taste or offbeat notes!

Big prices and rare wines continue to feature in Sterling sales. The most exciting recent transaction was a complete set of 23 Seppelts Para Centenary Release half bottles, 1878 onwards. All in unopened shippers, the happy buyer parted with over $20,000 as the highest bidder.

Rare old bottles sometimes are hard to find a home for and recently a beautiful 1948 Chateau Petrus with excellent providence (and just purchased in Bordeaux) was passed in. It seems the reserve of $5,000 was reasonable but there just weren’t any interested buyers.